With just five weeks until what will be a very different Christmas this year, this Clear Digital Digest examines:

• The impact of the second lockdown on retail and online sales.
• The increasingly spread out nature of Black Friday – plus the potential implications of massively increased online sales on deliveries; Santa will be a busy boy this year.
• Christmas advertising is in full swing with ITV now forecasting an increase in revenue over this period so we take a look at this, plus a favourite campaign of the last week: Sony’s PlayStation 5.
• And finally: a novel approach to strategic planning. 

LOCKDOWN 2.0

Although not the cheeriest subject, this is the first Clear Digital Digest since we went into a second lockdown on 5th November.  

BLACK FRIDAY: ONE WEEK TO GO

As well as the lockdown, online sales in November will be further boosted to some degree by Black Friday next week.  

DELIVERY: SANTA WILL BE INCREASINGLY BUSY THIS YEAR

One topic that we will likely hear more about in the coming weeks is the problems caused by these inflated online sales when it comes to actually delivering the orders.

CHRISTMAS ADVERTISING

Of course, to many it wouldn’t feel like Christmas without the high prestige TV led campaigns we are now accustomed to expect, which have really increased in profile over the last week with the launch of both the John Lewis ad plus a new series of ITV ratings winner “I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here”.

• Despite the general downturn in advertising this Christmas for obvious Covid related reasons, ITV are actually expecting revenues for the last 3 months of 2020 to beat those recorded last year.
• We highlighted last month that overall ad revenue for Q4 this year was forecast to decline by 10.5%/£724m – but within that TV was estimated to fall by only 2.7% year on year, compared to the likes of cinema (-66%) and outdoor (-20%).
• With regards to the TV ads themselves, this has undoubtedly been the most challenging year for both ad agencies and brand owners to strike the right tone creatively.  That said, I can’t help but feel somewhat underwhelmed by all the large retail campaigns I’ve seen so far, with no clear stand-outs.  That may be unfair as perhaps I’m just a little jaded by the increasing hysteria from certain quarters about the need to have a “normal Christmas” this year (spoiler alert: it won’t be).  In any case, this year’s effectiveness research will no doubt be intriguing for brand owners as it comes in.
• After a slightly negative note there, I’ll highlight an excellent (and cheeky) campaign by Sony to promote this week’s launch of their new PS5 console, where they have replaced the traditional London Underground roundels outside Oxford Circus tube station with the iconic four shapes that have featured on all PlayStation controllers.

AND FINALLY…

As alluded to above, forecasting accurately for 2021 is going to pose more challenges than for any year in living memory.  So I liked this take on strategic planning from Tom Fishburne, the ever entertaining Marketoonist…

Today’s varied Clear Digital Digest round-up includes:

• The launch of major Christmas campaigns is imminent, but it is predicted that advertising spend will be down 10% this year.
• An update on the latest ecommerce sales figures, plus Black Friday getting earlier every year.
• The latest in customer channel shift from brands as diverse as TikTok, Shopify, Royal Mail, AO, Sky and John Lewis.
• And finally...the great Woolworths hoax.

HERE COMES CHRISTMAS: BUT AD SPEND FORECAST TO BE £724M LESS THAN LAST YEAR

With half term coming to a close this week and Christmas products all over the high street, November is typically when the large retail brand campaigns come to life, with large TV spend supported by a variety of other media.  Of course 2020 is not a typical year, so there will certainly be all kinds of challenges creatively this year, as well as with regards to available budgets.

• The Advertising Association (AA) and Warc forecast final quarter spend will be £724m less than last year, a decline of 10.5% on last year to a total of £6.2bn.  This would be the biggest drop in the “golden quarter” since figures started to be compiled in 1982.
• Marks & Spencer are a prime example of a retailer that will likely be drastically changing its advertising strategy this Christmas, with rumours that its TV advertising will be purely focused on food this year, with clothing only supported online.
• TV is actually forecast to be fairly resilient this Christmas, with a decline of just 2.7% on last year.  Instead - and very understandably – it is external sectors such as cinema and outdoor/posters that will be seeing especially significant declines.

• Digital spend across search and online display is also forecast to fall in the fourth quarter, by almost £300m to £3.57bn in total.  However, this still equates to a dominant 57% share of the total ad spend of £6.2bn.

 

• Of course, ad spend shifts this year vary greatly by product category, as is shown by some recent eMarketer research demonstrating that the travel and automative sectors have been hit particularly badly.
• Looking at just digital advertising in the UK, it is forecast that travel spend will decline by 37% this year, as the table below shows.  Other sectors have been less adversely affected by the pandemic, led by technology products as we spend more time at home for both leisure and work reasons.

ECOMMERCE: SALES UPDATE - AND BLACK FRIDAY IS GETTING EARLIER EVERY YEAR

Despite all this year’s uncertainty, one trend that can be confidently predicted for Christmas 2020 is that ecommerce sales will take a significant larger share of total retail sales, but how much larger exactly?

• The ONS released their latest online sales tracker on Friday, showing that ecommerce accounted for 26.1% of all retail sales in September, up 8% on the 18.1% recorded in September 2019. 
• This 26.1% was a slight decline of 0.6% on the previous month August’s 26.7%, but the pandemic driven medium term shift to increased online shopping remains.
• Overall retail sales for September grew by 3.4% on September 2019 and edged forward by 1.5% month on month.

CHANNEL SHIFT: SHOPIFY, TIK TOK, ROYAL MAIL, AO, SKY, JOHN LEWIS

Here are a few recent stories that caught my eye regarding channel purchasing shifts, including developments from AO and Sky which demonstrate how digital first brands continue to consider the ways that a physical presence can help them engage further with customers…

AND FINALLY…

​One brand that won’t be returning to the high street – despite a flurry of excitement earlier this week – is the old childhood favourite Woolworths.  

Today’s Clear Digital Digest looks at some recent stories regarding Pret A Manger and Amazon, reviews today’s new ONS retail data and learns how the data revolution is transforming the world of cricket.

• Pret A Manger’s new subscription service
• How Amazon’s ads service is driving its profits
• Hot off the press: today’s ONS retail sales update for August
• And finally…the cricket data revolution

AMAZON’S PROFITABILITY: INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY ITS ADVERTISING

​Well worth a read is this fascinating article about Amazon and its profitability, courtesy of Ben Evans.

• The article firstly challenges the initially previously received wisdom that “Amazon doesn’t make a profit”, perhaps true in years gone by, but profits jumped especially in 2018 and 2019, reaching $22bn last year.
• More recently, the conversation has shifted a little to state “ah but all the profits come from AWS” – ie Amazon Web Services, Amazon’s highly successful cloud computing service.  Again, while this may historically have been true, the case is made that it’s now Amazon’s ad services that are really gaining in profitability, having grown hugely in revenue over the last 5 years as the graph below shows…

RELEASED TODAY: ONS RETAIL SALES UPDATE FOR AUGUST

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have today released their latest retail sales figures for August.  We reviewed July’s data in a Digital Digest last month, so here’s a quick update, one month on…

• Overall retail sales increased slightly in August, up 0.7% against the previous month, but more pertinently, up 1.7% on the previous year (August 2019).
• Internet sales accounted for 26.6% of all retail sales in August, the second full month since all physical stores were able to trade.  This share fell back slightly from the 28% recorded in July, but is still significantly higher than the 18.1% recorded in August 2019.  
• With the current volatility surrounding Covid, it is difficult to make any predictions about how much of this shift to online shopping will remain in the medium/long term, but it is certainly interesting to continue tracking this share.

AND FINALLY...

When my subscription copy dropped through my letterbox this week, I was surprised to see The Cricketer magazine (now in its centenary year) highlighting “The Data Decade” on its front page. 

​With the relevant articles exploring how increasing use of digitised data has fundamentally changed recent cricket coverage and some future predictions on how this may evolve, it’s a timely reminder than even such a traditional pastime as cricket is experiencing unprecedented change with its own digital/data revolution. 
But this also demonstrates that there is still a place for more traditional media…yes I do still read some print magazines as well…

Today’s Clear Digital Digest starts with a look back at the beloved Argos catalogue before looking forward to the growing impact of another Argos innovation in Click & Collect, as well as other retail partnerships.  Then we turn our attentions Stateside to review Q2 updates from Amazon, Facebook and Google plus the latest digital innovation in sports watching…

END OF AN ERA – GOODBYE ARGOS CATALOGUE
So RIP the Argos catalogue – as one wag noted, much easier to say than to actually do.  As was widely reported on Thursday, Argos have stopped producing their twice yearly catalogue, meaning that January’s Spring/Summer 2020 edition will be its final print version.  Argos now say that online shopping offers “greater convenience” than flicking through a catalogue, part of the continuing wider shift to ecommerce sales. 
Having previously spent 8 years in various roles within Argos’ ecommerce operation, during which time the catalogue’s ubiquity (estimated to have been in approx. 75% of British homes at one time) certainly helped to mutually drive web sales, there’s definitely a sense of nostalgic regret to see the “laminated book of dreams” bid farewell.  

However, it appears that less and less were being printed, with 3.9m of the last edition down from a peak of over 10m a decade ago.  And with each catalogue costing roughly £3 to produce back when I was working there, changing shopping habits will have made ceasing production an increasingly attractive option for the huge potential cost savings; something that has been frequently reviewed over the years. 
Nostalgia for kids being able to choose their favoured Christmas presents will be partly assuaged by the news that Argos plans to continue to print its Christmas Gift Guide, still generally a sturdy 300 pages or so, albeit well down on the 1800 page behemoth that was the main catalogue.  
Before then, for anyone after a quick nostalgic fix, the Guardian pulled together a selection of vintage covers and catalogue pages, count me in for 1976’s Home Stereo Disco Unit (item 7 below…)

CLICK AND COLLECT/RETAIL PARTNERSHIPS
Of course, there are other retail channels that Argos pioneered which remain highly relevant and continue to grow in popularity, none more so than Click & Collect.  In line with all ecommerce sales, Click & Collect orders have been growing rapidly since the start of lockdown, with more and more brands partnering together for mutual benefit. 
​Argos have offered a collection service for selected eBay customers since 2014, while the introduction of Argos collection points into many Sainsburys stores since being bought by the grocer in 2016 meant that Argos was able to continue offering C&C services throughout lockdown.

​Amazon entered into a similar partnership with Next last year with their Amazon Counter initiative, while John Lewis have recently announced plans to extend their C&C tie-up with the Co-op to over 500 stores. 
John Lewis have also just stated that they expect 60% of their sales to be online, up from 40% pre-Covid.  In an update to all John Lewis partners, chair Sharon White said “We have two of the best loved and trusted brands in the UK, rated highly for our personal service and expert, impartial advice. Customers are, however, shopping in very different ways – younger people especially – with the pandemic accelerating the importance of digital. We expect John Lewis to be a 60% online retailer, from 40% pre-Covid-19, and Waitrose to rise above 20%, from 5%.”
Such uncertain times do certainly seem to be leading to a much wider array of complementary brands working together, with another recent example seeing Sainsburys starting to provide a range of 3000 products to the garden centre retailer Dobbies.

Q2 UPDATES: AMAZON, FACEBOOK, GOOGLE
Three of the tech giants have provided their latest global Q2 updates in the last few days, with varying results.  Of course, Q2 2020 is the first quarter since the world has been in lockdown, so one would certainly not expect standard trends from these updates.

• Amazon leads the way, with global sales growing by 40% to $88.9bn (£68.2bn) in what Jeff Bezos described as a “highly unusual quarter”.   Operating income increased to $5.8bn (£4.5bn) during the three months to 30 June, up from $3.1bn (£2.4bn) in 2019.  Interestingly, third-party sales grew faster during the quarter than Amazon’s first-party sales as Amazon Marketplace continues to stamps its dominance; something I explored in further depth recently in my “The UK marketplace sector” deeper dive.

 

• Perhaps more surprisingly, Facebook ad revenue grew by 10% to $18.3bn (£14bn) in the second quarter of 2020, defying the impact of the global coronavirus pandemic.  During the three months to 30 June, the social media company grew its total revenue by 11% to $18.7bn (£14.4bn), increasing its daily active user base by 12% to 1.79 billion and monthly active users to 2.7 billion, also up 12%.

 

• Facebook’s growth is even more notable when compared with Google’s Q2 update.  Revenues at the search giant fell by 2% during the second quarter of 2020 to $38.3bn (£29.4bn), the first year-on-year decline in quarterly revenue since Google became a publicly-listed company in 2004.  Revenue generated by Google Search fell to $21.3bn (£16.4bn) during the three months to 30 June, from $23.6bn (£18.1bn) in the same period last year.   Overall, Google ad revenue declined from £32.5bn (£24.9bn) in the second quarter of 2019, to $29.9bn (£23bn), although YouTube ad revenue rose to $3.8bn (£2.9bn) from $3.6bn (£2.8bn).

AND FINALLY…
In a week when it was announced at the last minute that planned pilot sporting events were not allowed to admit limited spectators as originally planned, technology continues to serve up increasingly sinister options instead.  After previously highlighting Japanese robotic baseball fans last month, MLS in the US have now seemingly opened applications for the world’s next supervillain…

Today’s Clear Digital Digest reviews a recent survey on changing customer attitudes as well as the latest IPA Bellwether marketing spend report.  The MP3 is 25 years old this week and although not widely used these days, as the key tech that paved the way for streaming its influence can often be understated, as we explore below.  Plus a look across the Channel at a new, unique way to watch films…
 
CONSUMER ATTITUDES AND MARKETING SPEND
Amongst the latest insights that emerged this week, Wunderman Thompson’s “Covid, Commerce and the Consumer” report stood out, based on a survey of 2000 UK consumers in early June.  Some key highlights include:

• Future outlook was understandably negative, with 48% of consumers feeling less positive about the future, with an identical number feeling less positive about future finances.
• 62% of consumers feel less positive about shopping in-store, slightly mitigated by 43% now feeling more positive about online shopping.
• Amazon accounted for 35% of all online shopping during lockdown (up from 30% before), with a huge 94% of respondents having made at least one purchase from Amazon.
• Grocery is the other online channel to see a significant increase in share of spend, as we also covered in last week’s Digest.

MP3 TURNS 25
There was an important but fairly unheralded digital milestone this week, as the MP3 file turned 25.

AND FINALLY...
With cinemas closed until recently and only gradually re-opening now, one new trend has been the emergence of drive-in cinemas to bring some US retro flavour to cinephiles who are seeking more than another Netflix binge.  Venues as varied as Brent Cross Shopping Centre car park and Alexandra Palace will be accommodating such yearnings this summer.

However, Haagen-Dazs are adding a new flavour in Paris with their “Cinema Sur L’Eau” concept: a socially distanced cinema where customers will sit in boats rather than cars.  Further investigation reveals they will be showing a film entitled Le Grand Bain (English title: Sink Or Swim), about a group of men who start their own synchronised swimming team.  Certainly a wiser choice of movie to show in this environment than Jaws or Titanic.