Today’s varied Clear Digital Digest round-up includes:

• The launch of major Christmas campaigns is imminent, but it is predicted that advertising spend will be down 10% this year.
• An update on the latest ecommerce sales figures, plus Black Friday getting earlier every year.
• The latest in customer channel shift from brands as diverse as TikTok, Shopify, Royal Mail, AO, Sky and John Lewis.
• And finally...the great Woolworths hoax.

HERE COMES CHRISTMAS: BUT AD SPEND FORECAST TO BE £724M LESS THAN LAST YEAR

With half term coming to a close this week and Christmas products all over the high street, November is typically when the large retail brand campaigns come to life, with large TV spend supported by a variety of other media.  Of course 2020 is not a typical year, so there will certainly be all kinds of challenges creatively this year, as well as with regards to available budgets.

• The Advertising Association (AA) and Warc forecast final quarter spend will be £724m less than last year, a decline of 10.5% on last year to a total of £6.2bn.  This would be the biggest drop in the “golden quarter” since figures started to be compiled in 1982.
• Marks & Spencer are a prime example of a retailer that will likely be drastically changing its advertising strategy this Christmas, with rumours that its TV advertising will be purely focused on food this year, with clothing only supported online.
• TV is actually forecast to be fairly resilient this Christmas, with a decline of just 2.7% on last year.  Instead - and very understandably – it is external sectors such as cinema and outdoor/posters that will be seeing especially significant declines.

• Digital spend across search and online display is also forecast to fall in the fourth quarter, by almost £300m to £3.57bn in total.  However, this still equates to a dominant 57% share of the total ad spend of £6.2bn.

 

• Of course, ad spend shifts this year vary greatly by product category, as is shown by some recent eMarketer research demonstrating that the travel and automative sectors have been hit particularly badly.
• Looking at just digital advertising in the UK, it is forecast that travel spend will decline by 37% this year, as the table below shows.  Other sectors have been less adversely affected by the pandemic, led by technology products as we spend more time at home for both leisure and work reasons.

ECOMMERCE: SALES UPDATE - AND BLACK FRIDAY IS GETTING EARLIER EVERY YEAR

Despite all this year’s uncertainty, one trend that can be confidently predicted for Christmas 2020 is that ecommerce sales will take a significant larger share of total retail sales, but how much larger exactly?

• The ONS released their latest online sales tracker on Friday, showing that ecommerce accounted for 26.1% of all retail sales in September, up 8% on the 18.1% recorded in September 2019. 
• This 26.1% was a slight decline of 0.6% on the previous month August’s 26.7%, but the pandemic driven medium term shift to increased online shopping remains.
• Overall retail sales for September grew by 3.4% on September 2019 and edged forward by 1.5% month on month.

CHANNEL SHIFT: SHOPIFY, TIK TOK, ROYAL MAIL, AO, SKY, JOHN LEWIS

Here are a few recent stories that caught my eye regarding channel purchasing shifts, including developments from AO and Sky which demonstrate how digital first brands continue to consider the ways that a physical presence can help them engage further with customers…

AND FINALLY…

​One brand that won’t be returning to the high street – despite a flurry of excitement earlier this week – is the old childhood favourite Woolworths.  

Today’s Clear Digital Digest is full of tasty morsels, as we look at:

• “Bagel cities” – and how customer footfall continues to cluster at the edges.
• The latest online grocery news, particularly from Ocado.
• Notable digital dates: happy birthday Instagram and here comes Amazon Prime Day.
• A different type of Hotel Chocolat.

LONDON: A BAGEL CITY, NOT JUST FOR BRICK LANE

​Javelin Group have recently published some insightful research regarding the impact of Covid19 on footfall within 5 key global cities: New York, Sydney, Tokyo, Berlin and London. 

• The graph below looks at footfall within a variety of different London shopping destinations: e.g. central, suburban, transport etc. 
• This shows how the suburban Wood Green shopping centre has nearly recovered in terms of customers visting since Covid struck but it is a very different story for the office workers starved Cheapside as well as the prestige shopping destination of Regent Street.  

AND FINALLY…

After coming across this tweet, it appears that yes you can book a chocolate orange themed room in a ski hotel in the Alps.  The Christmas tree in the picture really is something.

Today’s Clear Digital Digest starts with a look back at the beloved Argos catalogue before looking forward to the growing impact of another Argos innovation in Click & Collect, as well as other retail partnerships.  Then we turn our attentions Stateside to review Q2 updates from Amazon, Facebook and Google plus the latest digital innovation in sports watching…

END OF AN ERA – GOODBYE ARGOS CATALOGUE
So RIP the Argos catalogue – as one wag noted, much easier to say than to actually do.  As was widely reported on Thursday, Argos have stopped producing their twice yearly catalogue, meaning that January’s Spring/Summer 2020 edition will be its final print version.  Argos now say that online shopping offers “greater convenience” than flicking through a catalogue, part of the continuing wider shift to ecommerce sales. 
Having previously spent 8 years in various roles within Argos’ ecommerce operation, during which time the catalogue’s ubiquity (estimated to have been in approx. 75% of British homes at one time) certainly helped to mutually drive web sales, there’s definitely a sense of nostalgic regret to see the “laminated book of dreams” bid farewell.  

However, it appears that less and less were being printed, with 3.9m of the last edition down from a peak of over 10m a decade ago.  And with each catalogue costing roughly £3 to produce back when I was working there, changing shopping habits will have made ceasing production an increasingly attractive option for the huge potential cost savings; something that has been frequently reviewed over the years. 
Nostalgia for kids being able to choose their favoured Christmas presents will be partly assuaged by the news that Argos plans to continue to print its Christmas Gift Guide, still generally a sturdy 300 pages or so, albeit well down on the 1800 page behemoth that was the main catalogue.  
Before then, for anyone after a quick nostalgic fix, the Guardian pulled together a selection of vintage covers and catalogue pages, count me in for 1976’s Home Stereo Disco Unit (item 7 below…)

CLICK AND COLLECT/RETAIL PARTNERSHIPS
Of course, there are other retail channels that Argos pioneered which remain highly relevant and continue to grow in popularity, none more so than Click & Collect.  In line with all ecommerce sales, Click & Collect orders have been growing rapidly since the start of lockdown, with more and more brands partnering together for mutual benefit. 
​Argos have offered a collection service for selected eBay customers since 2014, while the introduction of Argos collection points into many Sainsburys stores since being bought by the grocer in 2016 meant that Argos was able to continue offering C&C services throughout lockdown.

​Amazon entered into a similar partnership with Next last year with their Amazon Counter initiative, while John Lewis have recently announced plans to extend their C&C tie-up with the Co-op to over 500 stores. 
John Lewis have also just stated that they expect 60% of their sales to be online, up from 40% pre-Covid.  In an update to all John Lewis partners, chair Sharon White said “We have two of the best loved and trusted brands in the UK, rated highly for our personal service and expert, impartial advice. Customers are, however, shopping in very different ways – younger people especially – with the pandemic accelerating the importance of digital. We expect John Lewis to be a 60% online retailer, from 40% pre-Covid-19, and Waitrose to rise above 20%, from 5%.”
Such uncertain times do certainly seem to be leading to a much wider array of complementary brands working together, with another recent example seeing Sainsburys starting to provide a range of 3000 products to the garden centre retailer Dobbies.

Q2 UPDATES: AMAZON, FACEBOOK, GOOGLE
Three of the tech giants have provided their latest global Q2 updates in the last few days, with varying results.  Of course, Q2 2020 is the first quarter since the world has been in lockdown, so one would certainly not expect standard trends from these updates.

• Amazon leads the way, with global sales growing by 40% to $88.9bn (£68.2bn) in what Jeff Bezos described as a “highly unusual quarter”.   Operating income increased to $5.8bn (£4.5bn) during the three months to 30 June, up from $3.1bn (£2.4bn) in 2019.  Interestingly, third-party sales grew faster during the quarter than Amazon’s first-party sales as Amazon Marketplace continues to stamps its dominance; something I explored in further depth recently in my “The UK marketplace sector” deeper dive.

 

• Perhaps more surprisingly, Facebook ad revenue grew by 10% to $18.3bn (£14bn) in the second quarter of 2020, defying the impact of the global coronavirus pandemic.  During the three months to 30 June, the social media company grew its total revenue by 11% to $18.7bn (£14.4bn), increasing its daily active user base by 12% to 1.79 billion and monthly active users to 2.7 billion, also up 12%.

 

• Facebook’s growth is even more notable when compared with Google’s Q2 update.  Revenues at the search giant fell by 2% during the second quarter of 2020 to $38.3bn (£29.4bn), the first year-on-year decline in quarterly revenue since Google became a publicly-listed company in 2004.  Revenue generated by Google Search fell to $21.3bn (£16.4bn) during the three months to 30 June, from $23.6bn (£18.1bn) in the same period last year.   Overall, Google ad revenue declined from £32.5bn (£24.9bn) in the second quarter of 2019, to $29.9bn (£23bn), although YouTube ad revenue rose to $3.8bn (£2.9bn) from $3.6bn (£2.8bn).

AND FINALLY…
In a week when it was announced at the last minute that planned pilot sporting events were not allowed to admit limited spectators as originally planned, technology continues to serve up increasingly sinister options instead.  After previously highlighting Japanese robotic baseball fans last month, MLS in the US have now seemingly opened applications for the world’s next supervillain…

Today’s Clear Digital Digest looks at the early impact of the lockdown slightly easing last week, some updated ecommerce sales trends, Ofcom’s research regarding online usage habits and perceptions plus perhaps the scariest sports supporters seen for many a year.
 
HAIRCUTS BEFORE HEINEKEN
One of the biggest changes in the UK in the last week has obviously been the lockdown easing last Saturday (4th July) for both pubs and restaurants as well as for some other service retailers, most notably hairdressers.

• Despite elements of overcrowding in some hotspots, Saturday’s weekly high street footfall increase of 20% was still well down on the prior year (-56% YOY) meaning that high streets were still less than as half as busy as in 2019.

ONLINE NATION
Ofcom last week released their latest report “Online Nation” that looks at what people are doing online as well as their attitudes to and experiences of using the internet.

• The main headline was that the trend for increasing online usage has (as may be expected) been accelerated by the enforced lockdown.
• In April 2020, internet users in the UK spent an average of 4 hours 2 minutes online each day, a record figure and 37 minutes more each day per online adult compared with January 2020. On average, 18- to 24-year-olds spent over an hour more online each day than adults overall.

​AND FINALLY…
In the week that cricket was the latest sport to return behind closed doors, its sporting cousin baseball showed off an imaginative replacement for supporters in the stadium.  Japanese baseball team Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks unleashed 2 different types of robotic fans for their match against Rakuten Eagles on Tuesday, who arguably look scarier than Millwall fans from the 1980s…

It’s now just 3 weeks to go till Euro 2016 kicks off in France on Friday 10th June, and while the tournament itself will have some way to go in order to match the still incredible story of Leicester City’s domestic Premier League triumph, the extra home nation interest this year will undoubtedly see passion levels run high once Euro 2016 actually starts. 

Summer football events such as the Euros are now also an established part of the marketing and promotion calendar for many brands – for both official sponsors and other companies – so I’ve taken a look at how some of them have so far embraced this opportunity.   

It was estimated that the 2014 World Cup contributed £2.5bn to UK consumer spending and it is believed that Euro 2016 will generate a similar amount, with food, drink, retail and betting sectors seeing the greatest benefits.  Over 60% of pubs are predicting like for like sales increases of more than 10% through June, with the England v Wales group match on Thursday 16th June unsurprisingly highlighted as a particularly large opportunity.

​The nature of big sporting tournaments like Euro 2016 lends itself to a variety of different objectives for brands, in particular:

• Short-term sales drivers based on the watching experience, from food and drink options to purchasing new TVs and home entertainment systems.
• Longer term brand sponsorship opportunities, typically from official sponsors making the most of their association. 

​
OFFICIAL SPONSORS: CARLSBERG EARLY PACE-SETTERS

​UEFA have 10 official sponsors for Euro 2016; ranging from the usual suspects such as Adidas, Coca-Cola and McDonalds to emerging brands which won’t be as familiar to European consumers.  These include the Chinese consumer electronics company Hisense and the seemingly aptly named Socar.  Socar is actually the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic, so in reality this organisation is perhaps not such a natural fit for football tie-ins as Carlsberg for example.

​Amongst official sponsors, Carlsberg have certainly been to the fore with their activation plans, with a range of initiatives all following the “if Carlsberg did…” strapline, seemingly both in domestic markets and pan European too.

This week, Carlsberg have been trailing online a new ad campaign starring Marcel Desailly, one of France’s World Cup 98 and Euro 2000 winning heroes.  “If Carlsberg Did La Revolution” will undoubtedly feature heavily in June during TV coverage, with many hidden references in there for football geeks as well.

​Amongst the standard ticket giveaway competitions, Carlsberg have also been using more creative methods ahead of the tournament in the UK, including Chris Kamara looking at what would happen “if Carlsberg did substitutions” and rewarding generous Tube travellers with tickets to the Euros.  Other UK focused campaigns include experiential activity, with Carlsberg rebranding 19 English pubs as the patriotic “The Three Lions”. 

Some other selected highlights from official sponsors include:

• McDonalds are sponsoring the official Euro 2016 Fantasy League, always fun in offices around the country.
• Coca-Cola are continuing to run an extensive on-pack promo ticket giveaway, and are likely keeping their powder dry for more aggressive activity until after next week’s Champions League final, when the Euros anticipation ramps up another level.

 
“UNOFFICIAL” CAMPAIGNS: PREDICT THE WINNER

3 weeks out and it may be a bit early to stock up on essentials like food and drink if planning a barbecue party, but it is the perfect time for more considered purchases to enhance your Euro 2016 viewing pleasure, such as a shiny new TV.  And full disclosure here: I did once buy a new TV in time for Euro 2004, so this does actually happen!

However, with governing bodies such as UEFA monitoring and protecting their trademark rights to enhance the aforementioned sponsorship deals, this tends to result in some creative descriptions by the vast majority of brands that are not filling UEFA’s coffers; leading to the use of many generic campaign titles such as the “summer of sport" rather than the trademarked "Euro 2016" or similar.

A couple of good examples here are provided by Currys and Argos, both of whom are offering TV promotions with a prediction element based around "this summer’s big football tournament" (aka Euro 2016).

To the fore on Currys’ homepage is their “Cash for Goals” promotion, backed up by a range of accompanying media both online and offline.  This is a deal that Currys have run in similar form during previous summer football tournaments, and means that should you spend over £699 on a TV, Currys are offering £10 cashback for each goal that either England, Wales, Northern Ireland or Republic of Ireland score during the tournament. 
Customers can pick their team and with more choice amongst British Isles teams than usual, it will certainly be interesting to see if customers patriotically pick their own home nation, or go for another team based on their perceived chances.

Argos are also focusing on upper end TVs by offering customers a chance to win up to £1000 by “picking this summer’s winning football team” when you buy a TV over £700 in their “Go Get Winning” promotion. 
Further investigation shows that for those heartened by the Leicester fairytale, you can win £1000 back if you plump for an outsider like Albania or Slovakia (or Northern Ireland/Wales), down to £100 for France, Germany or Spain.  An England win, unlikely as it may seem, would net you £250 cashback.

​AND FINALLY…

​As well as official Euro 2016 sponsors maximising their activity with glossy campaigns and giveaways, plus retailers looking to sell appropriate seasonal products, multi-national sporting events generally also see a few more esoteric tie-ins as well.  Expect to see some of these to the fore as the tournament approaches, but as a tasty example, the Amazon listing below provides some food for thought…